I'm going to bed. Here are the things I'm going to be looking for when I wake up:
1) Does Obama end up winning Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri? I have been thinking all night that IN and NC would be very close wins for Obama, and that MO would be a close win for McCain. Right now, I think MO may end up in the Obama column -- many of the uncounted votes are in the urban areas around St. Louis and Kansas City that tend to vote Democratic.
2) What about Congressional races? Does Kagen hold off Gard in the House race here? Does comedian Al Franken win the Minnesota Senate race? What will be the total number of seats the Democrats take from the Republicans? We know that the Dems will not get to the magic number of 60 in the Senate.
3) How will the pundits dissect the result? Will they credit Obama for running a great campaign or will they criticize McCain for running a poor campaign? Or will they say it didn't matter, because the conditions were perfect for any candidate running on a campaign of "change?"
4) Who will be mentioned as possible members of the Obama administration? Wisconsin governor Jim Doyle has been mentioned as a possible candidate; he is not the most popular politician in a state that has otherwise favored Democrats over the past several years.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
OBAMA PROJECTED TO WIN
All of the networks have given CA, OR, and WA to Obama. He now has more than the required 270 electoral votes.
The first minority president.
The first member of Congress elected president in 48 years.
Only the second Democrat to be president since 1980, only the third since 1968.
The first minority president.
The first member of Congress elected president in 48 years.
Only the second Democrat to be president since 1980, only the third since 1968.
Wisconsin Update
The networks have long called Wisconsin for Obama. It's 52-47 Obama with 20% of the votes counted. Locally, incumbent Democratic Representative Steve Kagen leads Republican John Gard 54-46 with 32% of the votes counted.
On an unrelated note, it's amazing to see the crowd at Grant Park in Chicago awaiting Obama's speech, which will likely be a victory speech. The crowd is humongous. Whether you are happy, sad, or indifferent about Obama's impending win, you have to admit it's interesting to see the excitement Obama has brought to the country.
Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin also brought this excitement for a couple of weeks, but according to the polls it seems to have faded. One recent survey indicated that well over half of Americans felt that she was not prepared to be vice president.
On an unrelated note, it's amazing to see the crowd at Grant Park in Chicago awaiting Obama's speech, which will likely be a victory speech. The crowd is humongous. Whether you are happy, sad, or indifferent about Obama's impending win, you have to admit it's interesting to see the excitement Obama has brought to the country.
Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin also brought this excitement for a couple of weeks, but according to the polls it seems to have faded. One recent survey indicated that well over half of Americans felt that she was not prepared to be vice president.
Obama Wins Ohio
I know I just said I wouldn't post as much, but.... this is huge.
Obama has finally flipped a big "red" state -- MSNBC has given Ohio to Obama. Coupled with his win in Pennsylvania, he has taken another major step to victory.
Also, Louisiana to McCain.
Obama has finally flipped a big "red" state -- MSNBC has given Ohio to Obama. Coupled with his win in Pennsylvania, he has taken another major step to victory.
Also, Louisiana to McCain.
Anybody Out There?
I haven't posted as much lately because:
1) I had to put the kids to bed (they enjoyed their special Noggin treat? [Noggin is a kids' channel -- Dora and Diego were among the shows]
2) My wife called from El Salvador to get an update on how things were going.
3) Based on the lack of messages from my students, I get the idea that no one is reading my posts. :)
I'll keep adding things here and there unless I see a surge in participation. Maybe my students are all night owls and will start posting later?
1) I had to put the kids to bed (they enjoyed their special Noggin treat? [Noggin is a kids' channel -- Dora and Diego were among the shows]
2) My wife called from El Salvador to get an update on how things were going.
3) Based on the lack of messages from my students, I get the idea that no one is reading my posts. :)
I'll keep adding things here and there unless I see a surge in participation. Maybe my students are all night owls and will start posting later?
First Toss-Up State Goes to McCain
McCain has won North Dakota, which Obama had been leading by a small amount in recent polls.
Fox has given Obama WISCONSIN, NM, MN, MI, NY, and RI. They have called KS and WY -- in addition to ND -- for McCain.
Fox has given Obama WISCONSIN, NM, MN, MI, NY, and RI. They have called KS and WY -- in addition to ND -- for McCain.
7:30 Projections
Fox News has now given Pennsylvania to Obama. In addition, they have called Tennessee and Arkansas for McCain.
MSNBC has called the North Carolina Senate race for Kay Hagan, defeating Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Dole's husband was the Republican nominee for president in 1996. This inches the Democrats one step further toward a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate.
MSNBC has called Alabama and Georgia for McCain. Their electoral vote total right now stands at 103-58 in favor of Obama.
I continue to watch Indiana, and McCain has continued to hold a 3% lead with 42% of the vote counted. I'm starting to watch the county-by-county results for Virginia and North Carolina. These three are very interesting to watch geographically.
MSNBC has called the North Carolina Senate race for Kay Hagan, defeating Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Dole's husband was the Republican nominee for president in 1996. This inches the Democrats one step further toward a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate.
MSNBC has called Alabama and Georgia for McCain. Their electoral vote total right now stands at 103-58 in favor of Obama.
I continue to watch Indiana, and McCain has continued to hold a 3% lead with 42% of the vote counted. I'm starting to watch the county-by-county results for Virginia and North Carolina. These three are very interesting to watch geographically.
Biden Wins!!!
Not the vice presidency.
Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden has been reelected to the Senate by his state of Delaware. If he is elected VP, the governor of Delaware will appoint someone to take his place in the Senate.
The Democrats have switched another Republican Senate seat, so they've picked up 2. If they pick up 9, they will have a powerful 60 Senate seats.
Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden has been reelected to the Senate by his state of Delaware. If he is elected VP, the governor of Delaware will appoint someone to take his place in the Senate.
The Democrats have switched another Republican Senate seat, so they've picked up 2. If they pick up 9, they will have a powerful 60 Senate seats.
MSNBC Calls Pennsylvania for Obama
Unlike CNN and Fox, MSNBC has called the crucial state of Pennsylvania for Obama. If this is accurate, it is a tremendous blow to McCain. He saw PA as his last best hope to win the election. Now he has to win some other states that have been expected to go for Obama, like Florida, Ohio, and Colorado.
New 7:00 Projections
15 states plus the District of Columbia have their polls close at 7:00. Here we go, according to CNN:
Obama
ME, MD, CT, IL, DE, DC, NJ, MS
McCain
TN
OK
Too Close to Call
AL, FL, MS, MO, NH, PA
According to CNN's projection, Obama now leads 77-34. Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania are critical battleground states, but we don't know about them yet!
Obama
ME, MD, CT, IL, DE, DC, NJ, MS
McCain
TN
OK
Too Close to Call
AL, FL, MS, MO, NH, PA
According to CNN's projection, Obama now leads 77-34. Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania are critical battleground states, but we don't know about them yet!
Fox Calls South Carolina for McCain
Not a surprise -- but it gives McCain a 21 to 3 electoral vote lead so far according to Fox News.
I'm still watching Indiana closely by county. You can too, at this link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25362046
I'm still watching Indiana closely by county. You can too, at this link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25362046
Indiana, Indiana, Indiana
MSNBC is looking at the results in specific rural Indiana counties, saying that Obama is running several percentage points higher than Democrat John Kerry did in those counties. Even though Indiana is still too close to call, this could be a sign that he could win this reliably "red" state.
CNN has McCain expanding his lead to 52-47 in Indiana right now.
Watch for urban areas in each and every state; they tend to go Democratic. Rural areas are more likely to go Republican. In Indiana, Indianapolis and Gary (southeastern Chicago metropolitan area) are the two major urban areas.
Several more states have closed their polls now at 6:30 but MSNBC is not calling any of those states yet. I believe Fox has called West Virginia for McCain, which would give him a 13 to 3 electoral vote lead so far.
CNN has McCain expanding his lead to 52-47 in Indiana right now.
Watch for urban areas in each and every state; they tend to go Democratic. Rural areas are more likely to go Republican. In Indiana, Indianapolis and Gary (southeastern Chicago metropolitan area) are the two major urban areas.
Several more states have closed their polls now at 6:30 but MSNBC is not calling any of those states yet. I believe Fox has called West Virginia for McCain, which would give him a 13 to 3 electoral vote lead so far.
First Results
CNN has called Kentucky for McCain and Vermont for Obama. This gives McCain an 8 to 3 lead in electoral votes.
The Kentucky Senate race between McConnell and Lunsford is 50-50 with 10% of the votes counted. McConnell, the incumbent Republican, is the leader of the Republicans in the Senate ("Minority Leader"). It would be a major blow to the Republicans should he lose.
McCain has a 51-48 lead in Indiana with 6% of the votes counted.
In 20 minutes, the polls close in NC, WV, and OH. If Obama wins any one of those three, he is in strong shape. All three states went for the Republican candidate four years ago.
Finally, the first switch in the Senate has apparently occurred. Warner, a Democrat, won his Virginia race as expected.
The Kentucky Senate race between McConnell and Lunsford is 50-50 with 10% of the votes counted. McConnell, the incumbent Republican, is the leader of the Republicans in the Senate ("Minority Leader"). It would be a major blow to the Republicans should he lose.
McCain has a 51-48 lead in Indiana with 6% of the votes counted.
In 20 minutes, the polls close in NC, WV, and OH. If Obama wins any one of those three, he is in strong shape. All three states went for the Republican candidate four years ago.
Finally, the first switch in the Senate has apparently occurred. Warner, a Democrat, won his Virginia race as expected.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Checking the Polls to Make Your "November Madness" Predictions
Here's a link to CNN's polling map. This will help you play "November Madness" and predict the outcome of Tuesday's presidential election.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/index.html
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Election Night
Check in here on Election Night! I'll be monitoring several television and online sources and share my views on how things are unfolding.
Here are some of the things we'll be watching:
If the polls are to be believed, how big will Barack Obama win? If Obama wins all or most of the battleground states (Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida), is this a realignment of the electoral map? President Bush won all of those states, except Pennsylvania, four years ago.
If Virginia and/or North Carolina -- among the first polls to close -- go for Obama, it will be a long night for McCain. If they -- and other eastern battleground states -- stay Republican, it could be a long night for all of us. :-)
What is the result of John McCain's "last stand" in Pennsylvania? Does he admirably get within a couple of points? Does he win it but still lose most of the other battleground states? Or does his Pennsylvania message get through to voters in other states, lifting him to the presidency?
Will it be a record-breaking election for turnout? Or will the wide gaps in the polls keep people at home because they believe the results are inevitable? Which party will be hurt more by voters turned off by having to wait in line for hours to vote?
How big will the Democratic gains in Congress be? The big question is can the Dems gain nine seats in the Senate, making them effectively filibuster-proof? Many of these Senate races are in "red" states (more conservative/Republican states), so the results will be fascinating. On the flip side, comedian Al Franken ("Stuart Smalley" on SNL, author of "Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot [and Other Observations]") should be in better shape in "blue" Minnesota -- can he beat incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman?
And locally, can John Gard perform a miracle in this electoral environment -- knock off an incumbent House Democrat (Steve Kagen)? Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District is traditionally conservative -- can Gard's negative ads allow him to follow in the footsteps of Republicans Toby Roth and Mark Green?
These questions and more will be answered Tuesday night! This political junkie can't wait.
Here are some of the things we'll be watching:
If the polls are to be believed, how big will Barack Obama win? If Obama wins all or most of the battleground states (Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida), is this a realignment of the electoral map? President Bush won all of those states, except Pennsylvania, four years ago.
If Virginia and/or North Carolina -- among the first polls to close -- go for Obama, it will be a long night for McCain. If they -- and other eastern battleground states -- stay Republican, it could be a long night for all of us. :-)
What is the result of John McCain's "last stand" in Pennsylvania? Does he admirably get within a couple of points? Does he win it but still lose most of the other battleground states? Or does his Pennsylvania message get through to voters in other states, lifting him to the presidency?
Will it be a record-breaking election for turnout? Or will the wide gaps in the polls keep people at home because they believe the results are inevitable? Which party will be hurt more by voters turned off by having to wait in line for hours to vote?
How big will the Democratic gains in Congress be? The big question is can the Dems gain nine seats in the Senate, making them effectively filibuster-proof? Many of these Senate races are in "red" states (more conservative/Republican states), so the results will be fascinating. On the flip side, comedian Al Franken ("Stuart Smalley" on SNL, author of "Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot [and Other Observations]") should be in better shape in "blue" Minnesota -- can he beat incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman?
And locally, can John Gard perform a miracle in this electoral environment -- knock off an incumbent House Democrat (Steve Kagen)? Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District is traditionally conservative -- can Gard's negative ads allow him to follow in the footsteps of Republicans Toby Roth and Mark Green?
These questions and more will be answered Tuesday night! This political junkie can't wait.
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