Check in here on Election Night! I'll be monitoring several television and online sources and share my views on how things are unfolding.
Here are some of the things we'll be watching:
If the polls are to be believed, how big will Barack Obama win? If Obama wins all or most of the battleground states (Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida), is this a realignment of the electoral map? President Bush won all of those states, except Pennsylvania, four years ago.
If Virginia and/or North Carolina -- among the first polls to close -- go for Obama, it will be a long night for McCain. If they -- and other eastern battleground states -- stay Republican, it could be a long night for all of us. :-)
What is the result of John McCain's "last stand" in Pennsylvania? Does he admirably get within a couple of points? Does he win it but still lose most of the other battleground states? Or does his Pennsylvania message get through to voters in other states, lifting him to the presidency?
Will it be a record-breaking election for turnout? Or will the wide gaps in the polls keep people at home because they believe the results are inevitable? Which party will be hurt more by voters turned off by having to wait in line for hours to vote?
How big will the Democratic gains in Congress be? The big question is can the Dems gain nine seats in the Senate, making them effectively filibuster-proof? Many of these Senate races are in "red" states (more conservative/Republican states), so the results will be fascinating. On the flip side, comedian Al Franken ("Stuart Smalley" on SNL, author of "Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot [and Other Observations]") should be in better shape in "blue" Minnesota -- can he beat incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman?
And locally, can John Gard perform a miracle in this electoral environment -- knock off an incumbent House Democrat (Steve Kagen)? Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District is traditionally conservative -- can Gard's negative ads allow him to follow in the footsteps of Republicans Toby Roth and Mark Green?
These questions and more will be answered Tuesday night! This political junkie can't wait.
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23 comments:
excellent questions Mr. Crane. I would like to add is the Bradley effect a misunderstood theory or an actual occurrence.
Greg, that will be difficult to gauge, although if Obama greatly underperforms compared to the polling data, pundits will definitely point to it.
The Bradley Effect suggests that whereas people may say that they will vote for a minority candidate when surveyed, those people may not be able to actually cast their vote for the candidate on Election Day due to prejudices they were uncomfortable expressing in the survey.
It is named for Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, who was a few points up in the polls when running for California governor in the early 1980s. However, he lost by a few points, and political scientists wondered how Bradley so underperformed on Election Day.
Another thing we could look at is WHERE Obama's vote tally mismatches the polling data. If, for example, Obama does much worse in rural central Pennsylvania than the polls predict, but his performance in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia meets the polling expectations, might one suggest the Bradley Effect was in play with those rural, less progressive voters?
The 'Bradley effect' will easily be offset or over-run by the 'momentum effect' that is so prevelant with US elections. Unfortunetly, Americans are easily swayed by who other people are going to vote for instead of looking at the issues themselves.
Charles -- Is this my brother? If so, we finally have a political science major to enlighten us. :)
Sure, we are influenced by others when we vote. Yard signs would be even less important if this wasn't the case.
If this is a major concern, it is a good thing that we do not require citizens to vote in America. Maybe it's a good thing that you can't vote online or by texting, because then the disinterested and misinformed voters would be more likely to bother to vote. I have heard that some democracies fine citizens who fail to vote!
I heard abot some "test" that Obama would get if he were elected president. Is that real?
Katherine, I think you're referring to the statement that Joe Biden, the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate made. He told some supporters in a meeting that after Obama is elected, countries meaning us harm will test Obama to see if he will stand up to them. For example, perhaps Iran, or North Korea, or al Queda would do something that would require a response from President Obama to see how tough he is.
McCain has used this comment to illustrate his experience in foreign affairs, saying that the world wouldn't test him. Undecided voters may decide that to elect Obama is to invite that testing, which could be dangerous for the country if Obama doesn't handle it well.
The Soviet Union tested John F. Kennedy shortly after he became president with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Like Obama, he was a young idealistic leader with limited foreign affairs experience.
(Another tidbit about JFK -- he was the last incumbent member of Congress to be elected president. John McCain or Barack Obama will be the first since JFK in 1960. I will share more election factoids through Tuesday night!)
Mr. Crane...i believe that John McCain will win a tight race...Barack is great canidate but john will pull thru...comment?
Zach -- According to the polls (and you saw them briefly in class today), if McCain wins it will be a tight one. I filled out my November Madness form and (as I recall) I ended up with about 350 electoral votes for Obama, so I guess that tells you what MY prediction is!
Hello, All.. we'll tommrow is defenitly will be a crazy, but close night me and zach will be your commentaters on the night, "For mcain". hopefully he and sarah can come out with a win. Wedensday will be a crazy day in class no matter who wins... Mr. crane... Comment?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA7Xk00-GZ8 zach or anyone who wants a bit of humor watch this. School appropriate!
One more and Im done! sorry Mr.crane. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsMWun2ktXI&feature=related
Thank you Grant and Zach for your contributions. And yes, Wednesday will be crazy, but hopefully interesting as we dissect whatever happened the night before.
In order to remain "fair and balanced," here's a clip of some of Governor Palin's least favorite campaign moments.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0JDi0OqT9U
A 'Get out the Vote' group showed up at my friends door the other day. They were all wearing Obama propaganda and handing out Obama specific literature. After discovering that the homeowner was on their side politically, they offered a bus ride to the polls on Tuesday. Is this legal? Are groups such as this and Acorn allowed to promote a specific party?
Charles, I think that's legal. If it was a government service or something like that, it would be unethical.
A nonprofit group does not have to be nonpartisan.
Extra Credit for zach and I?
i disagree with zack and grant on account of john mccain is foul smelling
obama-biden 08
obama is winning so far
and john mccain does smell worse than my dad. and sarah palin my dog, my dog walked by and it was the worse smell ever
no wait obama is losing..... :-P boo he will come back once all the good states count their ballots. OBAMA 08'
now obama is winning!!!
cnn reports 207 electoral votes, Obama. 129 electoral votes McCain.
who is sumrguy911
no clue.
Mr. Crane?
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